Transcript - Blue Room Press Conferecne MH 370
3rd December, 2015
WARREN TRUSS: Welcome this morning. I'm here with Darren Chester, the Assistant Minister in the Defence portfolio, and also Martin Dolan, the Chief Commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau to provide an update on the search for the missing Malaysian aircraft MH370. Since the earliest days of the search, the MH370 search strategy working group has been conducting ongoing research to glean any new information that might help us pinpoint the location of the aircraft. To this end, the ATSB has engaged the defence service and technology group to provide expert analysis of available data relating to the MH370. The analysis used models from the satellite communications data, aircraft dynamics, meteorological data to determine the likely flight paths which in turn were subject to validation experiments to ensure they aligned with the actual flight data.This work is built on some of the other research that's been undertaken by international agencies to help refine and perfect the information that we have, so that we make sure the search is happening in the right area. Now, the analysis has informed a new ATSB report, MH370 definition of underwater search area, an update of that area, and copies of this document are available to you. I think for those who would like to see the original work, there's copies of that available as well. But I do need to advise that it's fairly technical and therefore heavy reading. The key outcome of this additional work validates what has happened so far. It affirms that the aircraft is likely located somewhere in 120,000 square kilometre area along the seventh arc. The seventh arc is identified on that map.
That has been the key focus of our search right from the time that the satellite data became available to us. It's the same area that I announced with my ministerial colleagues from Malaysia and the People's Republic of China in April of 2015. So the search area has not moved, however this additional work has tended to pinpoint further that the search area at the southern end of the seventh arc of the southern end of the original search area is the most prospective. And it is also recommended that we widen that search area a little, and so the purple areas on the map are the new area which is considered to be the most prospective. The northern parts of the arc are considered to be less prospective.
Now, to date, around 76,000 square kilometres has been searched. The remaining 44,000 square kilometres will be the focus of the search going forward. So we'll be concentrating the search in the areas in the southern part of the map that have not so far been covered.
Over the winter months, there have been two vessels - the Fugro Discovery and the Fugro Equator working in the search area. But earlier this week, the Havila Harmony left Fremantle to join in the search effort, and within the coming months a fourth vessel to be provided by China will add to the search effort. All of the four vessels will take advantage of what is expected to be more favourable weather conditions in the summer months so that the search can be completed as quickly as possible. We think that the search of the whole 120,000 square kilometre search area is likely to take until about June of next year.
Now, over the whole of the time when the search has been undertaken, which is now some 21 months, we're fortunate to have had the co-operation of at least 20 countries around the world who have contributed their own resources and effort to the response. Particularly our work with the … Malaysia and the People's Republic of China has been collaborative and helped us to ensure that the search is as effective as possible. Now all three countries have contributed significant resources to the search. Australia and Malaysia have made ongoing financial contributions, while the Government of the People's Republic of China just last week committed to provide funding and a ship for use in the search.
We're particularly grateful for this commitment from China, because that will help ensure that there are adequate finances available and resources to ensure that the whole of the prospective area can be thoroughly searched. Finally, let me again acknowledge the burden that the families of the passengers on board are enduring. After 21 months, still no absolute assurance about the fate of their loved ones. And our efforts very much are in - are devoted towards locating the aircraft so that the families themselves can have some closure and understanding about what happened in the last hours of that flight. Australia, Malaysia and the People's Republic of China are committed to honouring our undertaking to complete the service, and we remain hopeful and indeed optimistic that we will still locate the aircraft. There's around 44,000 square kilometres yet to be searched in this new priority area, and we're optimistic and hopeful that that search will result in us locating the aircraft.
The new research that's being released today further emphasises that we are searching in the right direction. It uses different methodology and has come to the same conclusions. Now that gives us really encouragement that every effort has been made to make sure the search is well focused and well targeted, and hopefully therefore will achieve, someday, a satisfactory result.
Now, Darren, might like to say a few words also about this new technical report that's been released, and then we'll be taking some questions.
DARREN CHESTER: Thank you ladies and gentlemen. It's a great pleasure to join the Deputy Prime Minister here today. I'm very proud of the role that the Defence Science and Technology team have played in the search for MH370. The Defence Science and Technology Group has played quite a critical role, and we're- it's a great pleasure to have a member of the team here today, [indistinct] Dr Neil Gordon. Thank you and the team for working [indistinct]. The latest work, as the Deputy Prime Minister indicated, has confirmed with a high [indistinct] of probability that we are searching in the right area, and we remain optimistic that we will get an outcome within the next 12 months hopefully. The search area that the Deputy Prime Minister referred to has been a little over half searched - is that right? And we're confident by between 2016 the rest of the - the [indistinct] area will be searched.
Fundamentally, Australia now and our partner nations have never forgotten that this is about providing some comfort for families and friends of the passengers and the crew aboard MH370. We want to again sincerely thank the team and the work they've done. They've been diligently to provide some of that comfort in the future. Thank you.
WARREN TRUSS: Now, are there any questions people would like to ask?
QUESTION: With this new funding from China, the [indistinct] knowledge(*), how would these … the search plan be [indistinct] or whether it be adjusted with the new funding?
WARREN TRUSS: Well the Chinese contribution comes in the form of an additional ship, which will be equipped with … invested in [indistinct] starter. They've also made a financial contribution which will make up the shortfall that was in the budget to complete the search until that announcement was made. The total cost is estimated around $180 million, and so this funding from the Chinese is critical to enable the search to be completed. You will probably be aware, well you'll all be aware of the fact that the original funding estimate was a little lower than that, but we were working in the terms of Australian dollars, and the other bills that have paid obviously in US dollars. So the decline in the value of the Australian currency since the loss of MH370 has meant that that budget has needed to be boosted. And so we're particularly grateful that the Chinese have put not only resources into the search but also made a financial contribution.
QUESTION: Just to double check on that, so that's $180 million, that's the cost of the search from the start to when … the entire search. What's the Malaysian contribution to that search- that $180 million?
WARREN TRUSS: Well Australia can contributed $60 million towards that cost, and the [indistinct].
QUESTION: So we're talking here in US or Australian dollars?
WARREN TRUSS: We're still talking Australian dollars.
QUESTION: Okay, and so the Chinese have put in 14.5 million, is that right? [Indistinct] … And the rest of that is split in half between Australia and [indistinct]?
WARREN TRUSS: No, well Australia's contributed $60 million, and then Malaysia has undertaken to fund the rest, and of course that is not the total cost of the international effort that's been put into the search and the recovery, going right back to the commitment of aircraft and search personnel 21 months ago. But this is what's been involved in this particular … in the actual search [indistinct].
QUESTION: Does this report in any way add any more to solving the mystery of why the aircraft [indistinct]?
WARREN TRUSS: No it hasn't been… it hasn't attempted to address why and how the aircraft managed to be in that location. What the purpose of the research is to try and find where it is now resting, and that's work that's being done on the basis of the communication between the aircraft and the satellite. And at the moment we feel confident that the engine's ceased operation, and therefore it started it's decent into the sea. So that- we know pretty well precisely where it was while the engines were running; the issue that's in question how and over what distance it entered the water.
QUESTION: How much of the high probability search area have you now searched?
WARREN TRUSS: We've searched about half of it. And there's about 44,000 square kilometres to go, so the probability area's about 98,000 square kilometres.
QUESTION: That's the higher probability area?
WARREN TRUSS:The hotspot, well we have searched about three quarters of that, and- but there is some additional work being done now to go back and since that is such obviously a priority area to check on- to recheck some of the data so that we're absolutely certain that that area is clear.
QUESTION: And then presumably once the work's been done to confirm that that's the case, then once this- the final quarter of that most probable area has been searched will the search resume after June, or is it likely to conclude around then?
WARREN TRUSS: We are committed to this search that the whole area within the purple box. We've made no commitments beyond that. But at the last meeting of Ministers, the understanding was that the probability of us finding the aircraft outside of that square was low, and that therefore that further search effort, in the absence of new information, was not likely to be cost effective.
QUESTION: So there is a possibility then that it is in that area which you previously searched?
WARREN TRUSS: It sorry?
QUESTION: There is a possibility that it is in an area which you've previously searched?
WARREN TRUSS: It is unlikely but it is possible. And because of the way in which the equipment photographs and measures the information it collects, it's possible that there are little gaps. And some … there have been some sightings of interest of course, and we will need to go back and be absolutely certain that they are in fact just geographical features, or something else, and to positively rule them out. So we think it's unlikely that it's in there, but it is possible that maybe this is something that those will be [indistinct] might like to make some [indistinct] …
DARREN CHESTER: Of the areas that we…
WARREN TRUSS: Maybe you should come up [indistinct].
DARREN CHESTER: Sorry Minister. Of the area that we have currently already searched there is a small proportion, of the order of 4 per cent, where we will have to look a bit more closely to confirm with dead certainty that the aircraft debris is not there. But the other 96 per cent of the area we have covered we are really certain that we have eliminated [indistinct] …
QUESTION: Mr Truss can I ask you, first of all, what do you know about the plan orchestrated play by Barnaby Joyce to see Ian Macfarlane defect to the National Party? And secondly …
WARREN TRUSS: [Talks over] Look we'll deal with that later, let's deal with this.
QUESTION: Minister, to clarify there, are you rechecking the data you've already got on these areas, or are you going back and having another look, and does this include - where we're checking again - does this include the area that Williamson & Associates said that the geological features they said would be a debris field?
WARREN TRUSS: This is the UK pilot?
QUESTION: No, no. So there was a boat that was found at the high-priority area, and the only other high priority area was an thing that's been dismissed as a geological feature in [indistinct].
MARTIN DOLAN: The … if I understood your question correctly there's two parts to it. The first is, the areas where we are not fully confident, the 4 per cent I was talking about, is what we will use the autonomous underwater vehicle Havila Harmony to examine. And the question of outside commentators pointing to low-resolution visual imagery and saying that there is something there, we already had fully eliminated that area by making several passes over it with high-definition sonar. So no, we're not going to go back there.
QUESTION: And sorry, just to clarify, so the area that Williamson and Associates referred to, that's not one of the areas you're going back to, just to clarify that?
MARTIN DOLAN: No.
QUESTION: And the area where Mr Truss mentioned where the British pilot had his idea, is that now an area you're going back to have a look at?
MARTY DOLAN: We're not going back to take a look at. Captain Hardy's suggestion as to the location of the aircraft actually sits in the area that we are currently searching. And so it's part of our planned search anyway.
QUESTION: Does that give you confidence, that two independent- apparently independent people have come up with the same area, or?
MARTY DOLAN: We stay in contact with everyone that's providing genuine opinion or expertise to this, and what we are finding, not surprisingly because of the quality of the work that's been done by The Defence Science and Technology Group, is that those that are really focused on this and on the answer are coming up to pretty much the same spots as we are.
QUESTION: Mr Truss can you just clarify please, are you redirecting resources to look at the hotspot once again, and how big is that hotspot, how much are you [indistinct]?
WARREN TRUSS: Well we're only going back to deal with areas where the resolution of the data may have left some doubt, and that's, as we've just heard, about 4 per cent of the area.. The area that's been identified by Captain Hardy, that will be covered in the routine area of the search. We think his scenario is quite unlikely, but nonetheless we don't rule out all options, and it seems fairly unlikely that the aircraft came into the sea in a controlled line. But nonetheless we don't rule out any of the options, and all of those sort of things are being examined. And the gliding- and the option of the aircraft gliding in(*) is covered within the priority search.
QUESTION: What's the timeframe for searching the 4 per cent?
DARREN CHESTER: It should be covered by the next two swings of Havila Harmony, so by probably middle of February(*).
QUESTION: And just to clarify, you're going back there not to look at specific items on the seafloor that might be debris, but because there might be gaps in the scans that [we know already?
DARREN CHESTER: We know where there are small gaps in the scans that have been done already, and we're going back to confirm those and eliminate them.
QUESTION: And what were the Chinese ship's role be, will it join the same patterns [indistinct]?
DARREN CHESTER: The Chinese vessel will be equipped with a synthetic aperture sonar. We are still in the train(*) of organising that. If all goes according to plan that will be available by the end of January. And that's a deep tow, so it will be a third deep tow capacity out there with synthetic aperture rather than conventional sonar.
QUESTION: Can I ask aside, form the areas in the hot spot which you- are there items of interest there which you've identified which you need to go back and look at specifically?
MARTIN DOLAN: There's no category one, but there's category twos that we need to take a look at. Category twos are ones that are of interest but we think are most likely not to be the aircraft but worth elimination, so we'll take another look at those just to be sure.
WARREN TRUSS: So we want the search to be thorough and comprehensive. Once the area within the purple block has been searched, we believe that all of the most prospective areas will have been thoroughly discounted, and therefore looking for the aircraft in another place would be a- have a low probability of success. And so this stage of the search therefore is absolutely critical. We're increasingly confident that the area of the search is the most prospective, and we therefore will be putting the maximum effort into making sure the best equipment is in the right places so that we can conclude the search as quickly as we can.
QUESTION: Can you tell us please how deep it is in the area you're searching? And roughly can you describe the terrain?
WARREN TRUSS: Well it's very deep. Martin?
MARTIN DOLAN: It varies between about 4000 and 6000 metres. The terrain gets from very complex and rough to comparatively smooth, and it gets smoother as we go south, which is from the evidence so far. We're finding a lot of new things about it, and that's a very complex piece of geology that's out there. This is a challenge, but we're [indistinct].
WARREN TRUSS: The most difficult part obviously was the brok- it's called the Broken Ridge. Now, the search has been concentrated south of that for quite some time now. As we've moved the likely search area further south we've moved away from the most difficult of the terrain.
QUESTION: What did it take for China to finally come to the party?
WARREN TRUSS: That's something I can't comment on. Obviously that's- it would be a part of their processes, and it's taken a long time. We're very pleased with the eventual outcome.
QUESTION: But why now? Why do you think they made this decision now?
WARREN TRUSS: Well it was a critical time because we were reaching the stage where funding had started to become an issue and our capacity to be able to continue the search. And we would've had to make some critical decisions about how to focus the search with the last remaining money. Now, the fact that these additional budget funds are available means that we can do it properly and be sure that the equipment is used as efficiently as possible. So when you're using a towed device it takes a very long time for the vessel to be able to turn that around and do another run, and many hours, and so that is lost time. So the current technique is to have longer runs as possible, and had we run short of money we would've had to do short runs and therefore waste more time doing turns. So that's an oversimplification, but essentially the search is less efficient if it's doing just short runs and therefore has to have frequent turn arounds. We've spent too much time not actually looking, but just getting a big long rope to turn around and go in the opposite direction.
QUESTION: Wouldn't it be preferable for the Chinese vessel to also have a UAV rather than the tow fish?
WARREN TRUSS: Well I think they're going to have the best technology.
MARTIN DOLAN: We only have a need for the one autonomous underwater vehicle to do the detailed eliminations in particular areas. The most efficient surface technique is towed sonar, and that's why we want to have that on the Chinese vessel.
QUESTION: Sorry, can explain some more about what the Chinese ship will actually do? Will it actually take over some of the work that the Fugro people are going to do, or will it be going back doing some of the specific searching that [indistinct].
MARTIN DOLAN: We're still looking at the tasking because we haven't yet confirmed the full details of the Chinese vessel. The likelihood is we'll do a mix of cutting in new areas and checking some of the old areas where we want to get some more refinement.
QUESTION: How will the sonar- the synthetic aperture radar, how well are they utilised, particularly to the side scan sonar? Will you use [indistinct]?
MARTIN DOLAN: Synthetic aperture radar uses essentially the same thing. It bounces the sound signal down to the sea floor, receives it back and it's analysed. Synthetic aperture does give you a higher resolution and therefore you get a better quality sonar picture, if you like. So that's- but it's essentially the same thing, there's some clever gadgetry on synthetic aperture that gives you a higher resolution image.
QUESTION: But you thought it was an important step for this type of equipment as well, didn't you?
MARTIN DOLAN: We're satisfied that the equipment we're using with conventional sonar does the job, but if we've got something better available to use then we're happy to take advantage of it.
QUESTION: Mr Dolan, how much faith do you have in Bayesian analysis? Because I presume it's used to find an airport [indistinct] as well.
MARTIN DOLAN: I'm very confidence in Bayesian analysis, and we're very grateful for the amount of effort the Advanced Science and Technology Group, supported by our Search Strategy Work Group. We take a very high degree of comfort, and particularly this also coincides with the areas of other experts [indistinct] specified [indistinct].
QUESTION: Has this analysis been undertaken since the start, or did it just start in July when the flaperon was found?
MARTIN DOLAN: No, we've been working with the STG on this since we took responsibility for the search, and it's been progressively refined over that period of time. The basic methodology has been in place, but there's always been the capacity to make it more refined. The other thing we've been able to do is where previously we had two different methodologies for assessing the likely flight paths of the aircraft based on the Bayesian analysis we can now say that the more northerly of those [indistinct].
QUESTION: The focus is clearly shifting [indistinct]. How much of the new search area covers the initial 60,000 square kilometres? There was the original focus on the 60,000, that has doubled to about 120,000. How much of an overlap do you get on that?
MARTIN DOLAN: The original 60 was comparatively narrow near the arc, and extended for a long way along the arc. What we've now done is concentrate south and go wider from the arc, so it's a different focus based essentially on re-analysis of the in-flight(*) assumptions.
WARREN TRUSS: I guess the focus has moved south as all of the research was being done, the various analysis all came to the same conclusion that the southern end was the most prospective. That's been firmed up even further, and therefore we were able to go wider because of the prospect that the area- one, you sort of establish more closely what the maximum distance that the aircraft could've travelled following the last beep; you're then able to move a little wider and make sure that all the options of how it could've strayed are covered.
QUESTION: Sorry, I'm just a little confused there. Are you moving the search south now or are you moving the search wider now?
WARREN TRUSS: Just wider now. This was the southern boundary and still is.
QUESTION: Okay.
QUESTION: And- nothing's turned up on time yet. That search area has been searched. Is that the end of the search?
WARREN TRUSS: Well as I said in an answer to the question earlier, when the Ministers met in I think it was April this year a decision was made that we would commit to this search area, and that following the thorough completion of that search that eliminated we felt 98 per cent or 99 per cent of the likelihood of the aircraft being located and therefore a search wider and further would be less likely to be cost justifiable.
QUESTION: So that's a yes, that would be the end of searching?
WARREN TRUSS: That- the position was taken was that that would be the target search area and in the absence of further and any new information that that would be complete the search.
QUESTION: Has the analysis thrown any further light on, well you're receiving the air craft continued on all autopilot until fuel ran out right, flying at 35,000 feet?
WARREN TRUSS: Well we don't just have to assume that because we know it…
QUESTION: Well you know it.
WARREN TRUSS: [Indistinct].
QUESTION: But has the fresh analysis thrown up any new theories of what caused this aircraft to [indistinct]?
WARREN TRUSS: [talks over] Well the analysis wasn't working in that area, it was just trying to pinpoint the location of the aircraft so it didn't attempt to deal with what might have been happening on board at the time.
QUESTION: Can we ask the ATSB if there are any theories that you're aware of about why the aircraft [indistinct] the first place?
MARTIN DOLAN: We are leaving that to the Malaysian investigation, the Malaysians responsible for the investigation under international law, we're cooperating with that investigation for support, their analysis and more particularly to try find the missing aircraft and it's not a matter that we've got any additional information.
QUESTION: One other question what condition are the black boxes likely to be in given this time and the amount of time they've had under this depth of water?
MARTIN DOLAN: The experience with Air France 447 where the flight data records were recovered after two years showed that they were in good shape and they were downloaded in a very quick period of time. We've got the same capability available to us as the French had and the history is that even in deep water, modern recorders hold their information well and can be downloaded quite effectively.
QUESTION: Did you actually learn anything in particular from the flaperon? The sort of shellfish that arrived had that given any indication of where it may have been lying or whether it was floating around or..?
MARTIN DOLAN: The flaperon is still being analysed by the French judicial authorities and we are being informed of developments there. What the flaperon tells us essentially is based on our assumptions about the barnacles and drift modelling and so on is that it most likely came from that area we're searching. It's arrival in [indistinct] is quite consistent with our search area.
QUESTION: The international IAG have put forward a theory that the flaperon separated before the aircraft hit the water, is that your theory?
MARTIN DOLAN:: The analysis of the failure mode of the flaperon has not been completed so I don't think anyone's in position to make those sorts of statements yet.
QUESTION: Mr Truss Ian Macfarlane?
WARREN TRUSS: Right okay [laughs].
QUESTION: If I may Mr Truss what do you know about the plan, orchestrated by Barnaby Joyce for Ian Macfarlane to join the National Party, can you confirm that that is occurring?
WARREN TRUSS: Well I have barely (*) any comment to make at all. If it's a plan that you think is orchestrated by Barnaby Joyce, then you wouldn't expect me to know about it would you? But the reality is we have a strong Coalition arrangement. We work closely together in Queensland as one political party. There are arrangements that are in place about where rooms that people sit in in Queensland and those arrangements have applied since the creation of the LNP.
QUESTION: Well the reason why I asked is that…
QUESTION: [Interrupts] Mr Truss leaving aside the Barnaby Joyce issue, do you know- what can you tell us about any approach that Ian Macfarlane has made to sit in your party room?
WARREN TRUSS: Well I haven't got any comments to make on…
QUESTION: Would you welcome him in the party room?
WARREN TRUSS: Well Ian and I have been friends for a long time. We grew up together and we've been friends I am very respectful of his ability. He's obviously contributed significantly to the Government so I have respect for him but what he wants to do in the future is entirely up to him.
QUESTION: Have you had any discussion with him?
WARREN TRUSS: I don't- look naturally we're friends, we talk a lot and we've been friends way, way before we came into parliament and so we certainly have discussions from time to time.
QUESTION: About this matter? Have you discussed this matter?
WARREN TRUSS: Well he's spoken to me obviously since he was not included in the Ministry but that's exactly what you'd expect when friends talk to one another and that's what's [indistinct].
QUESTION: In those discussions had he indicated dissatisfaction with the fact that he was left out of the Cabinet?
WARREN TRUSS: Well when I have private discussions with my friends I don't make any comments about what may have happened in those discussions.
QUESTION: Would you have hoped this might happen?
WARREN TRUSS: I said to you I have a high regard for Ian [indistinct].
QUESTION: [Indistinct].
WARREN TRUSS: Ian knows and has been associated with the creation of the LNP and knows about all of those sorts of issues and that I don't have anything further to add. Thank you.
[ENDS]
